Flashpocalypse Looms: Why doesn't anyone notice?

Disaster is looming for all interactive departments everywhere in the US. Why? Because there isn't a single school that I know of that is producing competent flash actionscripting graduates who are also great designers...not one. A big vacuum is forming that could bring dark days for our fledgling industry.

Think about it. Being an internet professional means that you are a part of the youngest profession in the world. Even more incredible, no other profession in the history of the earth has so wildly changed our way of life in such an unimaginably small amount of time. A couple of years ago, and this is no exaggeration, I got an email from a potential job applicant who had the gall to claim she had 15 years experience working on the internet. I suppose no one mentioned to her that the internet was born in 1993 for the most part. Meaning that the web is in it's 13 year of life. This industry is barely teen-aged and it's pitching a fit.

Most of that life has been supported by a rush of designers and computer programmers and IT professional flooding into the cauldron of open jobs scooping up loads of cash on the way, mashing together into the various companies that make up the internet design houses of 2007. Things seemed to be working themselves out for the most part. No one knew anything about the internet because the standards kept changing so fast every year brought a new thing to learn to develop websites properly. But professionals kept up the pace. The problem is the schools didn't.

Professionals are so busy making money hand over fist working on the web that no one is paying any attention to the schools that are producing the next, the second generation, of web professionals. The people coming out of many of our nation's design schools are ill equipped to satisfy the needs of legitamate web shops.

Every semester I lecture at USC to a graduating class of designers who started in the fine arts program and I start my discussion off by telling them that I would not hire a single one of them. It's not for shock value. I know that even the best student at that school isn't going to be able to contribute to my office in a signifigant manner. It's a sad truism that reflects the academic world failing to keep up with the professional paradigms of the day.

So why is a Flash disaster looming as I claimed earlier? Because the people who made the beautiful interactivity of the web come to life aren't in the trenches anymore. The people who we all admired 5 years ago because of their brilliant flash skills that we all wanted to emulate a now senior staffers, creative directors, associate creative directors, Sr Art Directors. They aren't designers anymore. And as the most talented designers move into more senior roles, they are no longer doing flash work which is instead being done by mediocre designers left behind at the career train station.

I've been responsible for hiring people at my last two positions and I have seen a disturbing trend in the level of professionalism and skill when I go to my recruiters for flash workers. The bar is dropping...fast.

Here are the top five points of the Flashpocalypse...

1. Money going to interactive advertising is increasing every year requiring more workers but schools aren't turning out more workers.

2. If I want to get a really good Designer/Developer on my team I have to pay at least 100/hr or more. I can't even get my friends to come work for me because I can't afford to pay them the rates they're getting from big pocket clients. That means I'm scraping the barrell to get the horrible flash people who only charge me $80 an hour. $80 an hour for the leftovers!

3. Agency's are still commonly using a $150 an hour blended rate for project budgeting which is leaving us with a pathetic 1.8 times multiplier on flash personel almost guaranteeing low or no profitablity on flash heavy projects. For those of us working in the world of cash hungry giants like Omnicom, IPG and Publicis low profitablilty spells disaster alone.

4. Flash Developer/Motion Graphics Designer is a profession in and of itself requiring a four year degree that is currently being done by designers who don't know either field. Yet there isn't a single school that I know of that is teaching these courses at a professional level.

5. Most frightening of all is that so many new Flash standards have appeared in the last year alone with figures like the Zigo Fuse engine appearing that I can barely do any development work anymore. In another year, I'll be just as much of a flash rookie as when I first started and so will many of the great Flash minds of the early 2000's as standards pass them by.

It's simple supply and demand....tons of new work every year and few skilled people to do it. Three years ago I could charge $40 an hour for freelance work and feel like I was robbing someone...now, I won't work for less than $80 and I can get $100 if I want. What does that mean for the near future? And I don't mean the long term future, I mean the short term future. I mean right now. What does it mean?

Disaster.